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PLO Pre-Flop Problems
By Chips_Middle | October 23, 2008
My hand is 
and I am in the cutoff seat (1 behind the button and therefore 2nd last to act after the flop).
The table is 6 handed. Under the gun folds and the guy in 2nd position raises pot (to $0.35). I call, the button calls, the small blind calls. Now the Big Blind decides to raise pot ($2.10)  and all hell is about to break loose. The original raiser (in 2nd position) has a short stack and raises all in (to $4.35). That’s $4 for me to call into a pot that will be $11.50. Not quite 2:1.
What should I be thinking here? I’m not certain. I can tell you what I was thinking and maybe we can go from there. I have a pretty good drawing hand. It has a single gap but that’s at the bottom which is good. It would be better if it were double suited but this is a pretty good hand. It’s a hand I was very happy to play against the initial raise.
These guys have both clearly signalled that they have a hand. The guy on the short stack raised from early position and then shoved over a 3 bet. He’s on a short stack and so that takes some of the weight away from his all in move but he has something he values.Â
The BB has been playing relatively solid poker.  He has a VPIP of 25% and a pre-flop raise % of 12%. He is quite aggressive post flop and although his pre-flop numbers make him tight (for this game), he has started making a few moves recently. He could be attacking all of the callers and making a play representing aces but I don’t think I have evidence to ignore the strengh that his 3-bet implies.
I’m thinking K high, single suited rundown. I shouldn’t be in terrible shape here. Against my dream hands, where both opponents hold AAxx I should be in good shape and am probably favourite. I’m thinking I might be against AA on one hand and a drawing hand that I dominate on the other. I’m thinking that with no Ace in my hand and a decent drawing hand, I am in alright shape against AAxx.
I call, hoping that the guy who is all-in has the AA and the Big Blind will just call. I am aware that he might raise and I have a small feeling in the back of my head that I probably just did something stupid but I reckon that if this becomes an all-in fest it will probably be at least 4 handed and my hand ought to have at least some equity. Hey. My stack is up to 4 buyins and you’ve got to gamble sometime right?
Anyway. I call, the button calls (so far, so good), the Small Blind folds and the Big Blind re-raises again and gets all-in ($9.40). This time it is just over $5 for me to call and the pot will be nearly $30 so it’s automatic. The button goes all-in, which is a raise of about $0.40 so doesn’t much count.
Showdown time. How am I doing? Was I right that my big drawing hand ought to end up with equity in a 4 way pot?Â
Me:
Original Raisor: 
Button: 
Big Blind: 
I have 19.5% equity here. Not enough by a long shot. The AA is nearly 45% to win this 4 way pot and is a massive dominating favourite. They just ate my outs.Â
I’m going in as an underdog against an AA hand and that’s ok. That’s part of the game. Look at the cards I need to improve though. I need to come from behind to beat AA and all the cards I need are in my opponents’ hands.Â
I need a T to fill the gap in my rundown. For all the drawing power of my hand, it can’t make a straight without a Ten and 3 of the 4 tens have already been dealt. Winning with 2 pair is going to be difficult because the K and the Q are in someone else’s hand and just about any card combination that gives me 2 pair gives someone else a draw to beat me.
If you put my hand against AAxx and a lower rundown like 8765 it’s not in terrible shape but is still below breakeven. What I failed to notice here is that the bulk of hands that are rushing to play these raised pots pre-flop are usually featuring high cards.
The fact that they could be eating my outs was predictable and it was predictable early on. I called a $0.35 raise and allowed it to get me involved to the tune of nearly a full buyin in a pot that I had little enough chance of winning. After the Big Blind 3-bet and the original raiser went all-in, I was faced with a decision. I had to call @$4 but I knew there was a reasonable chance that one of the other players in the hand would shove. I had only $0.35 invested and could easily have simply folded. I should have predicted that many of my outs would be gone.
So there you go. It’s a characteristic of pre-flop raises that they tend to be saying “I’ve got big card strength”. It’s a characteristic of pre-flop 3-betting that it tends to say I’ve got AA in my hand. So, when 4 players are willing to get all-in before the flop, you should probably expect to see AAxx along with several high card hands of various levels of connectivity and perhaps another high pair (usually kings).
My assumptions about my own hand strength were wrong, in that although I did dominate one of the other big card hands the combined effects of my opponents were simply to use up all my outs.Â
I shouldn’t have been so quick to dismiss the weaknesses in my hand. Having a 4 card rundown with no gaps and particularly being double suited instead of being single suited could have vastly improved my chances here (from roughly 20% to over 25% in this particular case).
There are plenty of individual situations I can simulate where I have some equity but there are few, if any, where I become a big favourite. There are many situations (such as the one I am in) where I give up significant equity.  I should probably just fold when I have only $0.35 invested. After all, I have $40 in front of me in a $10 game so I am obviously coming across more profitable opportunities than this one.
On a side note. Often it is better to get involved in these situations with a hand like 
In a confrontation with AAxx and 2 others on high cards, the double suited 8765 becomes the most likely winner. While my KQJ9 hand in the same spot has only15%.
Topics: Journal |
